The College Football Playoff (CFP) Eliminator is back for the 2022 season as we look to eliminate teams on a weekly basis from CFP contention.

Teams are eliminated based off their losses and path to the CFP. For Group of Five teams, that usually comes after their first loss of the season. For many teams, they simply do not boast the necessary strength of schedule to make a 4-team field regardless of their record. For the fun of the sport, we will be keeping teams that still have a shot at a New Years’ Six (NY6) bowl out of the eliminator – for now.

Let’s take a look at where every conference stands after Week 1 of the college season.

American Athletic Conference

Can the AAC push a team to the final four like they did in 2021? Not likely. But the conference has been the best of the Group of Five for most of the past decade. Right now, Houston has risen as the clear favorite after a triple-overtime win against UTSA. The Cougars avoid both Cincinnati and UCF in the regular season while playing future Big XII foes Texas Tech and Kansas before conference play begins.

Still in the hunt:

#25 Houston (1-0)
(RV) UCF (1-0)
SMU (1-0)
Tulane (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

(RV) Cincinnati (0-1): lost to Arkansas, 31-24 (Week 1)
East Carolina (0-1): lost to NC State, 21-20 (Week 1)
Memphis (0-1): lost to Mississippi State, 49-23 (Week 1)
Navy (0-1): lost to Delaware, 14-7 (Week 1)
South Florida (0-1): lost to BYU, 50-21 (Week 1)
Temple (0-1): lost to Duke, 30-0 (Week 1)
Tulsa (0-1): lost to Wyoming, 40-37 (2OT) (Week 1)

Atlantic Coast Conference

Clemson has been the ACC’s best bet to make the CFP in recent years, claiming two national championships, but the offense still looked shaky behind QB DJ Uiagalelei before pulling away from Georgia Tech. NC State got lucky against East Carolina while Pittsburgh escaped the Backyard Brawl against West Virginia, leaving the door wide open for ACC title contention and returning the ACC to the CFP.

Still in the hunt:

#5 Clemson (1-0)
#15 Miami (1-0)
#17 Pittsburgh (1-0)
#18 NC State (1-0)
#23 Wake Forest (1-0)
(RV) Florida State (2-0)
(RV) North Carolina (2-0)
Duke (1-0)
Syracuse (1-0)
Virginia (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

Boston College (0-1): lost to Rutgers, 22-21 (Week 1)
Georgia Tech (0-1): lost to Clemson, 41-10 (Week 1)
Louisville (0-1): lost to Syracuse, 31-7 (Week 1)
Virginia Tech (0-1): lost to Old Dominion, 20-17 (Week 1)

Big Ten Conference

Michigan and Ohio State are poised to be the top of the class again this year, with the Wolverines coming off a conference title and CFP appearance last year. The Wild West Division is showing to be just that, with Minnesota and Wisconsin looking to be the strongest of the bunch this early in the season.

Still in the hunt:

#3 Ohio State (1-0)
#4 Michigan (1-0)
#14 Michigan State (1-0)
#19 Wisconsin (1-0)
(RV) Penn State (1-0)
(RV) Minnesota (1-0)
Indiana (1-0)
Iowa (1-0)
Maryland (1-0)
Northwestern (1-0)
Rutgers (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

(RV) Purdue (0-1): lost to Penn State, 35-31 (Week 1)
Illinois (1-1): lost to Indiana, 23-20 (Week 1)
Nebraska (1-1): lost to Northwestern, 31-28 (Week 0)

Big XII Conference

Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State look to be the clear frontrunners in the hectic Big XII round-robin tournament. Still, history has proven that anyone can win in this conference. With Alabama coming to visit Austin and QB Quinn Ewers this weekend, the road to the CFP could look a lot different for the conference that hasn’t placed a team in the past two cycles.

Still in the hunt:

#7 Oklahoma (1-0)
#9 Baylor (1-0)
#11 Oklahoma State (1-0)
(RV) Texas (1-0)
(RV) Kansas State (1-0)
Iowa State (1-0)
Kansas (1-0)
TCU (1-0)
Texas Tech (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

West Virginia (0-1): lost to Pittsburgh, 38-31 (Week 1)

Conference USA

2021 C-USA champion UTSA almost came away with a victory over Houston, which would have been a huge win for the program before they take on Army and Texas. As many members gear up for the exodus to the American after this season, the conference’s chances of of producing a ranked team – let alone a NY6 team – are slim.

Still in the hunt:

FIU (1-0)
UAB (1-0)
Western Kentucky (2-0)

Early-season strugglers:

Florida Atlantic (1-1): lost to Ohio, 41-38 (Week 1)
Louisiana Tech (0-1): lost to Missouri, 52-24 (Week 1)
Middle Tennessee (0-1): lost to James Madison, 44-7 (Week 1)
North Texas (1-1): lost to SMU, 48-10 (Week 1)
Rice (0-1): lost to USC, 66-14 (Week 1)
UTSA (0-1): lost to Houston, 37-35 (3OT) (Week 1)

Eliminated:

Charlotte: eliminated with loss to William & Mary, 41-24 (Week 1)
* Wild hypothetical: Charlotte wins out, beating Maryland and South Carolina, who both compete in the Big Ten and SEC. Would the 11-2 49ers get close to a NY6 bid?
UTEP: eliminated with loss to Oklahoma, 45-13 (Week 1)

FBS Independents

Notre Dame suffered a loss to Ohio State in Columbus, but managed to keep the Buckeye’s offense in check for most of the game. BYU demolished South Florida, making them the most likely viable Independent team that has a chance at crashing the NY6 party.

Still in the hunt:

#21 BYU (1-0)
Liberty (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

Army (0-1): lost to Coastal Carolina, 38-28 (Week 1)
Notre Dame (0-1): lost to Ohio State, 21-10 (Week 1)
UConn (1-1): lost to Utah State (Week 0)
UMass (0-1): lost to Tulane, 42-10 (Week 1)

Eliminated:

New Mexico State: eliminated with loss to Minnesota, 38-0 (Week 1)
* Wild hypothetical: New Mexico State wins out, beating Wisconsin and Missouri, who both compete in the Big Ten and SEC. Would the 10-2 Aggies get close to a NY6 bid?

Mid-American Conference

The MAC has been a league of true parity, with six different conference champions since 2015. Although the difficulty of schedule is never enough to make a push for a CFP spot, a NY6 bid is not out of the question for a 12 or 13-win team. Even with Akron barely beating an FCS opponent, anything can happen once MAC play begins.

Still in the hunt:

Akron (1-0)
Eastern Michigan (1-0)
Northern Illinois (1-0)
Ohio (1-0)
Toledo (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

Ball State (0-1): lost to Tennessee, 59-10 (Week 1)
Bowling Green (0-1): lost to UCLA, 45-17 (Week 1)
Buffalo (0-1): lost to Maryland, 31-10 (Week 1)
Central Michigan (0-1): lost to Oklahoma State, 58-44 (Week 1)
Kent State (0-1): lost to Washington, 45-20 (Week 1)
Miami (OH) (0-1): lost to Kentucky, 37-13 (Week 1)
Western Michigan (0-1): lost to Michigan State, 35-13 (Week 1)

Mountain West Conference

The Mountain West was a thorn in the Pac-12 Conference’s back last season, going 5-5 against the Power Five Conference that occupies the same region. With Air Force and Fresno State looking to be tough teams to beat, and chances to prove themselves against Pac-12 opponents (most notably, Fresno State’s trip to USC on September 17), the Mountain West could make some noise and push a few teams into a ranked position.

Still in the hunt:

(RV) Fresno State (1-0)
(RV) Air Force (1-0)
Nevada (2-0)
New Mexico (1-0)
San Jose State (1-0)
UNLV (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

Boise State (0-1): lost to Oregon State, 34-17 (Week 1)
Colorado State (0-1): lost to Michigan, 51-7 (Week 1)
San Diego State (0-1): lost to Arizona, 38-20 (Week 1)
Utah State (1-1): lost to Alabama, 55-0 (Week 1)
Wyoming (1-1): lost to Tulsa, 40-37 (2OT) (Week 1)

Eliminated:

Hawai’i: eliminated with loss to Western Kentucky, 49-17 (Week 1)
* Wild hypothetical: Hawai’i wins out, beating Michigan and winning the Mountain West, with the Wolverines winning the Big Ten. Would the 11-2 Warriors get close to a NY6?

Pac-12 Conference

The Pac-12 has not had a CFP team since Washington made the field in 2016. Fast forward to today, and the conference is on the verge of losing its two most valuable members to the Big Ten. After Georgia’s demolition of Oregon and Utah’s loss at Florida, USC has become the slight frontrunner in the league.

Still in the hunt:

#10 USC (1-0)
(RV) Oregon State (1-0)
(RV) UCLA (1-0)
(RV) Arizona (1-0)
Arizona State (1-0)
California (1-0)
Stanford (1-0)
Washington (1-0)
Washington State (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

#13 Utah (0-1): lost to Florida, 29-26 (Week 1)
(RV) Oregon (0-1): lost to Georgia, 49-3 (Week 1)
Colorado (0-1): lost to TCU, 38-13 (Week 1)

Southeastern Conference

The nation’s top conference, which has sent Alabama and Georgia to the CFP two separate times, boasts a 14-1 overall record. The lone loss was LSU Head Coach Brian Kelly’s debut against Florida State. With a multitude of ranked teams and marquee wins out-of-conference, the SEC is poised to send a team to the CFP again – and possibly multiple.

Still in the hunt:

#1 Alabama (1-0)
#2 Georgia (1-0)
#6 Texas A&M (1-0)
#12 Florida (1-0)
#16 Arkansas (1-0)
#20 Kentucky (1-0)
#22 Ole Miss (1-0)
#24 Tennessee (1-0)
(RV) Auburn (1-0)
(RV) Mississippi State (1-0)
(RV) South Carolina (1-0)
Missouri (1-0)
Vanderbilt (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

LSU (0-1): lost to Florida State, 24-23 (Week 1)

Sun Belt Conference

Appalachian State suffered a home heartbreaker to North Carolina, 63-61, but gets another “prove-it” game as they travel to Texas A&M this weekend. Coastal Carolina got to business by beating Army, James Madison welcomed themselves to the FBS with a win over Middle Tennessee, and Old Dominion took down Virginia Tech, giving the Sun Belt a strong start to their 2022 conference campaign.

Still in the hunt:

Arkansas State (1-0)
Coastal Carolina (1-0)
Georgia Southern (1-0)
James Madison (1-0)
Louisiana (1-0)
Marshall (1-0)
Old Dominion (1-0)
South Alabama (1-0)

Early-season strugglers:

Appalachian State (0-1): lost to North Carolina, 63-61 (Week 1)
Georgia State (0-1): lost to South Carolina, 35-14 (Week 1)
Louisiana-Monroe (0-1): lost to Texas, 52-10 (Week 1)
Southern Miss (0-1): lost to Liberty, 29-27 (4OT) (Week 1)
Texas State (0-1): lost to Nevada, 38-14 (Week 1)
Troy (0-1): lost to Ole Miss, 28-10 (Week 1)

ELIMINATED TEAMS

Week 1 (4 teams)

Charlotte: eliminated with loss to William & Mary, 41-24 (Week 1)
Hawai’i: eliminated with loss to Western Kentucky, 49-17 (Week 1)
New Mexico State: eliminated with loss to Minnesota, 38-0 (Week 1)
UTEP: eliminated with loss to Oklahoma, 45-13 (Week 1)

The Big Ten has been top heavy throughout the College Football Playoff (CFP) era. The Big Ten East powers of Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Penn State have won every Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis since the East-West divisional format began in 2014.

With Michigan taking down Ohio State for the first time since 2011 and making the CFP for the first time, along with Penn State and Michigan State extending their head coaches, the trust for future success is all in the East. The West is again wide open with Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Purdue, and Wisconsin all being the heavier favorites and vying for the top spot.

In this preview, we’ll take a look at each team’s projected SP+ rankings and Returning Production Percentage to analyze their recent recruiting, returning production, and overall program health heading into the 2022 season. We’ll also have conference predictions and early game-by-game picks.

Illinois Fighting Illini

2021 Record: 5-7 (4-5 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 51%
SP+ Ranking: -3.2 (13th Big Ten, 82nd Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Wyoming
L @ Indiana
L vs Virginia
W vs Chattanooga
L @ Wisconsin
L vs Iowa
L vs Minnesota
L @ Nebraska
L vs Michigan State
W vs Purdue
L @ Michigan
W @ Northwestern

Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten)

Illinois brings in Syracuse transfer QB Tommy Devito to compete with Artur Sitkowski, but there will be growing pains under new offensive coordinator Barry Lunney Jr. (UTSA’s OC in 2021). An out of conference visit from Virginia and drawing Michigan and Michigan State in cross-divisional play certainly bolsters the schedule.

Indiana Hoosiers

2021 Record: 2-10 (0-9 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 67%
SP+ Ranking: -0.4 (11th Big Ten, 72nd Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Illinois
W vs Idaho
W vs Western Kentucky
L @ Cincinnati
L @ Nebraska
L vs Michigan
L vs Maryland
L @ Rutgers
L vs Penn State
L @ Ohio State
L @ Michigan State
L vs Purdue

Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)

The Hoosier offense was the worst in the conference in 2021 and with an overhaul at most of the skill positions, there isn’t much optimism for a rebound this season. Transfers Connor Bazelak (QB, Missouri), Shaun Shivers (RB, Auburn), and Emery Simmons (WR, UNC) all have a chance to earn playing time, but the defense needs to come up with more stops and turnovers if they want to be competitive.

Iowa Hawkeyes

2021 Record: 10-4 (7-2 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Citrus Bowl vs #22 Kentucky (L, 20-17)
Returning Production: 76%
SP+ Ranking: 12.5 (7th Big Ten, 27th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs South Dakota State
W vs Iowa State
W vs Nevada
W @ Rutgers
L vs Michigan
W @ Illinois
L @ Ohio State
W vs Northwestern
L @ Purdue
W vs Wisconsin
L @ Minnesota
W vs Nebraska

Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-4 Big Ten)

It’s expected that Iowa will have one of the nation’s best defenses again in 2022. They also return two-year starting QB Spencer Petras, but Alex Padilla is still in the competition. Iowa has a tough opening to the season with FCS power South Dakota State and Iowa State, but they should be in contention to win the West again.

Maryland Terrapins

2021 Record: 7-6 (3-6 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Pinstripe Bowl vs Virginia Tech (W, 54-10)
Returning Production: 70%
SP+ Ranking: 7.5 (10th Big Ten, 47th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Buffalo
W @ Charlotte
L vs SMU
L @ Michigan
W vs Michigan State
L vs Purdue
W @ Indiana
W vs Northwestern
L @ Wisconsin
L @ Penn State
L vs Ohio State
W vs Rutgers

Record Prediction: 6-6 (4-5 Big Ten)

Maryland is one of the few college football programs that have the luxury of having an established returning QB in Taulia Tagovailoa. With a talented and veteran receiving corps, the goal for the Terrapins should be to score more in Big Ten contests. Maryland was able to handle out-of-conference foes pretty handily, but struggled mightily against the four East Division powers and will need to be more competitive in those matchups.

Michigan Wolverines

2021 Record: 12-2 (8-1 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: CFP Semifinal: Capital One Orange Bowl vs #3 Georgia (L, 34-11)
Returning Production: 65%
SP+ Ranking: 20.6 (2nd Big Ten, 4th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Colorado State
W vs Hawai’i
W vs UConn
W vs Maryland
W @ Iowa
W @ Indiana
L vs Penn State
W vs Michigan State
W @ Rutgers
W vs Nebraska
W vs Illinois
L @ Ohio State

Record Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)

RB Blake Corum is one of the nation’s best returning backs; he’ll lead the offense alongside either Cade McNamara or J.J. McCarthy at QB. They’ll have to replace Heisman Trophy finalist Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo on defense, but returners at other positions will be a positive. The nonconference schedule is weak, but the usual Big Ten East Division suspects all bring back talented rosters as well. Michigan should be competing for the conference well into November.

Michigan State Spartans

2021 Record: 11-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Peach Bowl vs #12 Pittsburgh (W, 31-21)
Returning Production: 73%
SP+ Ranking: 15.1 (5th Big Ten, 16th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Western Michigan
W vs Akron
W @ Washington
W vs Minnesota
L @ Maryland
L vs Ohio State
L vs Wisconsin
L @ Michigan
W @ Illinois
W vs Rutgers
W vs Indiana
L @ Penn State

Record Prediction: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten)

Sparty returns QB Payton Thorne but needs to replace the electric Kenneth Walker III at RB and WR Jalen Nailor. The Big Ten East will have an abundance of returning QBs and will look to take advantage of a Michigan State passing defense that struggled in 2021. The roster is talented enough to compete for the Big Ten again, but the returners of other conference foes makes for a lot of toss-up games.

Minnesota Golden Gophers

2021 Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Guaranteed Rate Bowl vs West Virginia (W, 18-6)
Returning Production: 69%
SP+ Ranking: 14.2 (6th Big Ten, 21st Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs New Mexico State
W vs Western Illinois
W vs Colorado
L @ Michigan State
L vs Purdue
W @ Illinois
L @ Penn State
W vs Rutgers
W @ Nebraska
W vs Northwestern
W vs Iowa
W @ Wisconsin

Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

Minnesota has been on the cusp of playing for a Big Ten title for years now under head coach P.J. Fleck, but they have yet to make the trip to Indianapolis. QB Tanner Morgan returns for his fifth season, and he gets the luxury of RB Mohamad Ibrahim returning in the backfield. With quality transfers like Darnell Jefferies (DL, Clemson) and offensive linemen Quinn Carroll (Notre Dame) and Chuck Filiaga (Michigan), there are reasons for optimism surrounding a Golden Gopher West Division title run.

Nebraska Cornhuskers

2021 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 57%
SP+ Ranking: 12.3 (8th Big Ten, 29th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Northwestern (Aviva Stadium: Dublin, Ireland)
W vs North Dakota
W vs Georgia Southern
W vs Oklahoma
W vs Indiana
W @ Rutgers
L @ Purdue
W vs Illinois
L vs Minnesota
L @ Michigan
L vs Wisconsin
L @ Iowa

Record Prediction: 7-5 (4-5 Big Ten)

Nebraska is coming off a season in which they lost a lot of close games. QB Casey Thompson comes in from Texas and should provide a boost to an offense that couldn’t score in necessary situations. Nebraska should be able to match their 2021 win total early in the season, and it should be expected that they compete in most games in the even playing field that is the Big Ten West.

Northwestern Wildcats

2021 Record: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 65%
SP+ Ranking: -4.5 (14th Big Ten, 85th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
L vs Nebraska (Aviva Stadium: Dublin, Ireland)
W vs Duke
W vs Southern Illinois
W vs Miami (OH)
L @ Penn State
L vs Wisconsin
L @ Maryland
L @ Iowa
L vs Ohio State
L @ Minnesota
L @ Purdue
L vs Illinois

Record Prediction: 3-9 (0-9 Big Ten)

Pat Fitzgerald is known to do more with less at Northwestern, particularly in even-numbered years (his Wildcats advanced to the Big Ten Championship Game in 2018 and 2020). QB Ryan Hilinski returns, along with RB Evan Hull and WR Malik Washington. The Wildcats draw Maryland, Ohio State, and Penn State out of the East this season and will need to rebuild their defense to keep up with the returning production of many of the Big Ten quarterbacks they’ll face.

Ohio State Buckeyes

2021 Record: 11-2 (8-1 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Rose Bowl vs #11 Utah (W, 48-45)
Returning Production: 73%
SP+ Ranking: 29.9 (1st Big Ten, 1st Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Notre Dame
W vs Arkansas State
W vs Toledo
W vs Wisconsin
W vs Rutgers
W @ Michigan State
W vs Iowa
W @ Penn State
W @ Northwestern
W vs Indiana
W @ Maryland
W vs Michigan

Record Prediction: 12-0 (9-0 Big Ten)

Ohio State returns QB CJ Stroud, who is an early Heisman favorite, along with star RB TreVeyon Henderson and breakout WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The offense will be one of the best in the country and will put up a lot of points. The defense will be led by Jim Knowles, who held the DC role at Oklahoma State. He’ll have the chance to lead a loaded and young defensive unit that struggled at times in 2021. The Buckeyes should be early favorites for not only the Big Ten title, but also the CFP.

Penn State Nittany Lions

2021 Record: 7-6 (4-5 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Outback Bowl vs #21 Arkansas (L, 24-10)
Returning Production: 65%
SP+ Ranking: 16.3 (4th Big Ten, 13th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
L @ Purdue
W vs Ohio
W @ Auburn
W vs Central Michigan
W vs Northwestern
W @ Michigan
W vs Minnesota
L vs Ohio State
W @ Indiana
W vs Maryland
W @ Rutgers
W vs Michigan State

Record Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)

QB Sean Clifford should be the expected week one starter for the Nittany Lions. Newcomer RB Nick Singleton will look to improve the rushing attack while WR Parker Washington and transfer WR Mitchell Tinsley (Western Kentucky) add some assistance for Clifford. The defense should be strong behind field safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who was tied for the FBS lead in interceptions with six. Competing for the Big Ten East should be within reason in 2022.

Purdue Boilermakers

2021 Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Music City Bowl vs Tennessee (W, 48-45 / OT)
Returning Production: 67%
SP+ Ranking: 10.6 (9th Big Ten, 36th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Penn State
W vs Indiana State
W @ Syracuse
W vs Florida Atlantic
W @ Minnesota
W @ Maryland
W vs Nebraska
L @ Wisconsin
W vs Iowa
L @ Illinois
W vs Northwestern
W @ Indiana

Record Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)

Aidan O’Connell returns at QB for Purdue, who secured a nine-win season after an overtime bowl victory over Tennessee. Their out of conference schedule is manageable, as well as their cross-divisional games with Penn State, Maryland, and Indiana. WR Milton Wright looks to be the next star catcher for coach Jeff Brohm, who brings in some new coordinators. The schedule looks to be favorable for what should be a wild West Division season.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights

2021 Record: 5-8 (2-7 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Gator Bowl vs #17 Wake Forest (L, 38-10)
Returning Production: 66%
SP+ Ranking: -1.4 (12th Big Ten, 78th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
L @ Boston College
W vs Wagner
W @ Temple
L vs Iowa
L @ Ohio State
L vs Nebraska
W vs Indiana
L @ Minnesota
L vs Michigan
L @ Michigan State
L vs Penn State
L @ Maryland

Record Prediction: 3-9 (1-8 Big Ten)

Rutgers struggled to score against Big Ten foes in 2021, and much of the East Division returns an abundance of offensive production. There is some talent on defense with S Christian Izien and CB Avery Young, which could alleviate some of the blows. Transfer WR Taj Harris (Syracuse) comes in with over 2,000 receiving yards under his belt, which is good news for returning QB Noah Vedral if he can win the starting job again.

Wisconsin Badgers

2021 Record: 9-4 (6-3 Big Ten)
Bowl Result: Las Vegas Bowl vs Arizona State (W, 20-13)
Returning Production: 62%
SP+ Ranking: 18.2 (3rd Big Ten, 10th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Illinois State
W vs Washington State
W vs New Mexico State
L @ Ohio State
W vs Illinois
W @ Northwestern
W @ Michigan State
W vs Purdue
W vs Maryland
L @ Iowa
W @ Nebraska
L vs Minnesota

Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-3 Big Ten)

QB Graham Mertz is the current starter for the Badgers. The offense needs to do a better job of capitalizing in the red zone, which will include finding a go-to receiver. RB Braelon Allen will look to have a successful season and receive a bulk of the carries as well. Wisconsin is another team that should be competing for the division well into November.

Conference Standings Prediction

Conference Championship Game:
Ohio State: 42
Purdue: 17

The ACC spent last season on the outside of the College Football Playoff (CFP) after a few Clemson stumbles and two-loss Pitt taking the conference crown. Clemson is the clear favorite to recapture the title this season, but the Tigers have shown their vulnerability in what could be another exciting conference race.

NC State is returning QB Devin Leary, along with most of the defense, while Wake Forest returns Heisman hopeful QB Sam Hartman. Clemson brings back an elite defensive front and will be looking to be a lot more potent on offense this year, even though they will have to replace coordinators on both sides of the ball.

In this preview, we’ll take a look at each team’s projected SP+ rankings and Returning Production Percentage to analyze their recent recruiting, returning production, and overall program health heading into the 2022 season. We’ll also have conference predictions and early game-by-game picks.

Boston College Eagles

2021 Record: 6-6 (2-6 ACC)
Bowl Result: Military Bowl vs East Carolina (Game Canceled)
Returning Production: 60%
SP+ Ranking: -0.9 (12th ACC, 76th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Rutgers
W @ Virginia Tech
W vs Maine
L @ Florida State
L vs Louisville
L vs Clemson
L @ Wake Forest
W @ UConn
W vs Duke
L @ NC State
L @ Notre Dame
W vs Syracuse

Record Prediction: 6-6 (3-5 ACC)

The Eagles return QB Phil Jurkovec after an early-season injury derailed the team last season. Unfortunately for Boston College, they play a difficult schedule that includes Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and Wake Forest in a four-game stretch. With road trips at NC State and Notre Dame in the tail end of the season, they’ll have to steal a game or two to get to a decent bowl game.

Clemson Tigers

2021 Record: 10-3 (6-2 ACC)
Bowl Result: Cheez-It Bowl vs Iowa State (W, 20-13)
Returning Production: 72%
SP+ Ranking: 20.3 (1st ACC, 6th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W @ Georgia Tech
W vs Fordham
W vs Louisiana Tech
W @ Wake Forest
W vs NC State
W @ Boston College
L @ Florida State
W vs Syracuse
L @ Notre Dame
W vs Louisville
W vs Miami
W vs South Carolina

Record Prediction: 10-2 (7-1 ACC)

Clemson QB DJ Uiagalelei will face competition from freshman Cade Klubnik ahead of the season. The questions surrounding the offense remain, but the defense bolsters one of the best fronts in college football. Much of the ACC improved from last year to this year, which will be an impending challenge along with the trip to South Bend.

Duke Blue Devils

2021 Record: 3-9 (0-8 ACC)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 49%
SP+ Ranking: -14.3 (14th ACC, 119th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Temple
L @ Northwestern
W vs NC A&T
L @ Kansas
L vs Virginia
L @ Georgia Tech
L vs North Carolina
L @ Miami
L @ Boston College
L vs Virginia Tech
L @ Pittsburgh
L vs Wake Forest

Record Prediction: 2-10 (0-8 ACC)

Duke struggled to put points on the scoreboard last season, something that new head coach Mike Elko, the former defensive coordinator at Texas A&M, would like to change. For a team that was last in the country in total defense, along with a lack of returning talent, 2022 could be another long season in Durham.

Florida State Seminoles

2021 Record: 5-7 (4-4 ACC)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 78%
SP+ Ranking: 12.4 (5th ACC, 28th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Duquesne
W vs LSU (Caesar’s Superdome: New Orleans, LA)
L @ Louisville
W vs Boston College
L vs Wake Forest
L @ NC State
W vs Clemson
W vs Georgia Tech
L @ Miami
L @ Syracuse
W vs Louisiana
W vs Florida

Record Prediction: 7-5 (3-5 ACC)

QB Jordan Travis is returning after a promising 2021 season. Even though the Seminoles finished with a losing record, they were still competitive in many games. With a lot of returning offensive production, along with WR transfers Mycah Pittman (Oregon) and Johnny Wilson (Arizona State), there are reasons to be optimistic. A winning season should be the bare minimum of expectation.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

2021 Record: 3-9 (2-6 ACC)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 49%
SP+ Ranking: -5.3 (13th ACC, 90th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
L vs Clemson
W vs Western Carolina
L vs Ole Miss
L @ UCF
L @ Pittsburgh
W vs Duke
L vs Virginia
L @ Florida State
L @ Virginia Tech
L vs Miami
L @ North Carolina
L @ Georgia

Record Prediction: 2-10 (1-7 ACC)

QB Jeff Sims is one of the bright spots for the Yellow Jackets. WR Malachi Carter is expected to be utilized more this season, but that will be dependent on how much offensive line transfers Pierce Quick (Alabama), Paul Tchio (Clemson), and RJ Adams (Kentucky) can add to the front line. The pass defense needs to improve drastically in the “conference of quarterbacks” if Georgia Tech wants to compete for more victories.

Louisville Cardinals

2021 Record: 6-7 (4-4 ACC)
Bowl Result: SERVPRO First Responder Bowl vs Air Force (L, 31-28)
Returning Production: 79%
SP+ Ranking: 12.3 (6th ACC, 30th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W @ Syracuse
W @ UCF
W vs Florida State
W vs South Florida
W @ Boston College
L @ Virginia
W vs Pittsburgh
W vs Wake Forest
W vs James Madison
L @ Clemson
L vs NC State
L @ Kentucky

Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)

The offense is built around QB Malik Cunningham, who will have to be great if Louisville wants to compete for a conference title. Central Arkansas transfer WR Tyler Hudson (ASUN Player of the Year) adds some much needed help at the receiver spot for an offense that should be pretty explosive in 2022. Tough road contests at UCF, Virginia, Clemson, and Kentucky will be the bigger tests on the Cardinal’s schedule.

Miami Hurricanes

2021 Record: 7-5 (5-3 ACC)
Bowl Result: Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl vs Washington State (Miami Cancelation)
Returning Production: 73%
SP+ Ranking: 15.6 (2nd ACC, 14th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Bethune-Cookman
W vs Southern Miss
L @ Texas A&M
W vs Middle Tennessee
W vs North Carolina
W @ Virginia Tech
W vs Duke
L @ Virginia
W vs Florida State
W @ Georgia Tech
L @ Clemson
L vs Pittsburgh

Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)

New head coach Mario Cristobal will be relying heavily on QB Tyler Van Dyke, who is returning after a strong finish to his 2021 campaign. Cristobal took two guards with him from Oregon in transfers Jonathan Denis and Logan Sagapolu to boost the offensive line, but some difficult defensive tests are on slate with Texas A&M, Clemson, and Pitt.

North Carolina Tar Heels

2021 Record: 6-7 (3-5 ACC)
Bowl Result: Duke’s Mayo Bowl vs South Carolina (L, 38-21)
Returning Production: 64%
SP+ Ranking: 10.7 (7th ACC, 34th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Florida A&M
L @ Appalachian State
W @ Georgia Tech
L vs Notre Dame
W vs Virginia Tech
L @ Miami
W @ Duke
L vs Pittsburgh
W @ Virginia
L @ Wake Forest
W vs Georgia Tech
W vs NC State

Record Prediction: 7-5 (5-3 ACC)

UNC will need to replace QB Sam Howell, but viable options exist in Drake Maye and Jacolby Criswell. WR Josh Downs, who broke the receptions (101) and receiving yards (1,335) school records in 2021, will be target number one for whoever is throwing him the ball. An experienced offensive line unit returns, but the front on both sides will have to improve if they want to compete for the conference.

North Carolina State Wolfpack

2021 Record: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)
Bowl Result: Holiday Bowl vs UCLA (Game Canceled)
Returning Production: 82%
SP+ Ranking: 14.9 (3rd ACC, 18th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W @ East Carolina
W vs Charleston Southern
W vs Texas Tech
W vs UConn
L @ Clemson
W vs Florida State
W @ Syracuse
W vs Virginia Tech
W vs Wake Forest
W vs Boston College
W @ Louisville
L @ North Carolina

Record Prediction: 10-2 (6-2 ACC)

The Wolfpack return an abundance of production from a team that won nine games a season ago. With QB Devin Leary returning after a stellar 2021 (3,433 yards, 35 TD, 5 INT), the main offensive question mark will be who is getting the majority of the handoffs at running back. The defense was riddled with injuries last season, but many players are utilizing their Covid year and returning to the Wolfpack.

Pittsburgh Panthers

2021 Record: 11-3 (7-1 ACC)
Bowl Result: Peach Bowl vs #10 Michigan State (L, 31-21)
Returning Production: 69%
SP+ Ranking: 14.8 (4th ACC, 19th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs West Virginia
L vs Tennessee
W @ Western Michigan
W vs Rhode Island
W vs Georgia Tech
W vs Virginia Tech
L @ Louisville
W @ UNC
W vs Syracuse
L @ Virginia
W vs Duke
W @ Miami

Record Prediction: 9-3 (6-2 ACC)

Pitt will need to figure out how to replace not only Heisman Finalist QB Kenny Pickett, but also Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison, who transferred to USC. Pitt was able to secure transfer QB Kedon Slovis from USC and the offense should still be strong behind an offensive line that returns all five starters.

Virginia Cavaliers

2021 Record: 6-6 (4-4 ACC)
Bowl Result: Wasabi Fenway Bowl vs SMU (Game Canceled)
Returning Production: 53%
SP+ Ranking: 4.7 (9th ACC, 55th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs Richmond
W @ Illinois
W vs Old Dominion
L @ Syracuse
W @ Duke
W vs Louisville
W @ Georgia Tech
W vs Miami
L vs UNC
W vs Pitt
L vs Coastal Carolina
L @ Virginia Tech

Record Prediction: 8-4 (5-3 ACC)

UVA returns a lot of offensive production but needs to improve a defense that allowed points left and right. QB Brennan Armstrong is one of the more experienced and quality returners in not only the ACC, but all of college football. He’ll need a revamped offensive line to protect him better in 2022.

Virginia Tech Hokies

2021 Record: 6-7 (4-4 ACC)
Bowl Result: Pinstripe Bowl vs Maryland (L, 54-10)
Returning Production: 64%
SP+ Ranking: 3.9 (11th ACC, 61st Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W @ Old Dominion
L vs Boston College
W vs Wofford
W vs West Virginia
L @ UNC
L @ Pitt
L vs Miami
L @ NC State
W vs Georgia Tech
W @ Duke
W @ Liberty
W vs Virginia

Record Prediction: 7-5 (3-5 ACC)

Questions at the QB position remain for the Hokies, who bring in transfers Jason Brown (South Carolina) and Grant Wells (Marshall). Wells comes in with two years as a starter under his belt, but receivers will need to step up regardless of who is taking snaps.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

2021 Record: 11-3 (7-1 ACC)
Bowl Result: Gator Bowl vs Rutgers (W, 38-10)
Returning Production: 70%
SP+ Ranking: 6.4 (8th ACC, 49th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
W vs VMI
W @ Vanderbilt
W vs Liberty
L vs Clemson
W @ Florida State
W vs Army
W vs Boston College
L @ Louisville
L @ NC State
W vs UNC
W vs Syracuse
W @ Duke

Record Prediction: 9-3 (5-3 ACC)

QB Sam Hartman returns to an offense that will again be looking to compete for an ACC Atlantic title. The RB position looks solid with Justice Ellison and Christian Turner. Much of the defensive secondary is gone for a unit that allowed a lot of points last season, but Rondell Bothroyd returns on the edge after a strong campaign in 2021 conference play.

Syracuse Orange

2021 Record: 5-7 (2-6)
Bowl Result: N/A
Returning Production: 80%
SP+ Ranking: 4.5 (10th ACC, 57th Nationally)

Season Prediction:
L vs Louisville
W @ UConn
L vs Purdue
W vs Virginia
W vs Wagner
L vs NC State
L @ Clemson
L vs Notre Dame
L @ Pitt
W vs Florida State
L @ Wake Forest
L @ Boston College

Record Prediction: 4-8 (2-6 ACC)

Syracuse returns QB Garrett Shrader, who will be battling for the week one starting job. Out of conference games against Purdue and Notre Dame don’t make things easier for the Orangemen, who have to compete with an improved ACC Atlantic Division. The ceiling on this team is much higher than four wins if they can compete with some of the offenses they face this fall.

Conference Standings Prediction

Conference Championship Game:
Clemson: 35
Pittsburgh: 24

Nearly a year ago, the news that Oklahoma and Texas were leaving the Big XII for the SEC broke out and shook the college football world. The impending dominoes that fell as a result were pivotal to how the sport’s landscape was going to change.

College athletics, especially college football, are about to change forever as these new conferences form. Here’s how we got here:

Big XII —> SEC
Texas & Oklahoma

The Longhorns and Sooners made a big splash last summer when news leaked of their impending plans to ditch many of their longstanding conference foes. SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey can be given much of the credit, as the invites for Oklahoma and Texas were kept mostly under wraps for the duration of the talks.

American —> Big XII
Cincinnati, Houston, & UCF

The initial response of news media across the country was centered around how the Big XII was going to be broken up. Who was the Big Ten going to poach? What about the Pac-12 and ACC? By most accounts, the disbanding of the Big XII was a done deal. Credit Big XII Commissioner Bob Bowlsby for maintaining the ship and grabbing some high profile teams.

Cincinnati, who made the College Football Playoff (CFP) months after announcing their impending move, was a huge PR win for the Big XII, who failed to qualify a team for the second straight year. Houston, who has been long overdue for a Power Five invite, has also shared success in major sports such as football and basketball. UCF, one of the more polarizing teams in college football, has arguably had the most success (along with Cincinnati) from a Group of Five standpoint over the past five seasons.

FBS Independence —> Big XII
BYU

Stints in the old WAC and Mountain West conferences have been successful for the Cougars, who now bring their independent success, fanbase, and location back to conference affiliation.

Conference USA —> American
UAB, Florida Atlantic, Charlotte, North Texas, Rice, & UTSA

The American was formed out of the ruins of the Big East during the conference realignment period of the early-2010s. The conference has been ahead of the pack in the Group of Five, mainly thanks to the locations of their affiliates. Large metropolitan areas have been the focus for new additions, and the six new members from Conference USA will keep up with just that.

Conference USA —> Sun Belt
Marshall, Old Dominion, & Southern Miss

Conference USA struggled the most after the American poached six members to recoup their losses. The Sun Belt made their move as well, taking three other members who will fit nicely into the expanding Sun Belt.

Colonial Athletic Conference (FCS) —> Sun Belt
James Madison

The addition of FCS powerhouse James Madison, who won an FCS title in 2016, a women’s lacrosse title in 2018, and advanced to the College Softball World Series last season was a huge victory for the Sun Belt. The James Madison FCS to FBS jump brought the conference to 14 teams.

FBS Independence —> Conference USA
Liberty & New Mexico State

Conference USA was nearly out of options after the loss of nine conference members. So, Commissioner Judy MacLeod looked toward independent FBS members. Liberty has had some success in recent years while New Mexico State has been one of the worst teams in the FBS.

ASUN & WAC (FCS)—> Conference USA
Jacksonville State (ASUN) & Sam Houston State (WAC)

The move to add two prominent FCS schools in Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State, who won an FCS title in 2020, was the best that Conference USA could do as the realignment dust began to settle.

Conference Realignment Grades:

SEC: A+

Whenever conference realignment is discussed, usually one domino has to fall first – that happened to be the Oklahoma and Texas departures to the SEC. The move solidified the SEC as the powerhouse of FBS football and will probably bolster the conference over the Big Ten in terms of gross revenue once the Longhorns and Sooners venture east.

The Oklahoma and Texas news was a shock to most, which could propel future blockbuster moves in the future.

Sun Belt: A

Throughout all the chaos occurring everywhere else in their region, the Sun Belt managed to lose zero football affiliates while also adding in three Conference USA members and one of the more successful, and FBS-eligible, FCS programs in James Madison.

On top of all that, all four new members will begin Sun Belt Conference football this upcoming fall. The Sun Belt will become a 14-team league and one of the premier Group of Five conferences.

Big Ten: A-

Nothing lost, nothing gained. For the conference that rakes in the most money annually, the Big Ten may not even be looking to expand. The 2011 addition of Nebraska brought in the nation’s most loyal fanbase, and additions of Rutgers and Maryland in 2014 brought in the New York and Washington, D.C. markets. As far as Midwest expansion goes, there may not be many opportunities left.

An interesting look for the Big Ten could be to reach into the ACC or Big XII, which would be hard to deny for any university that may be getting the opportunity. One thing is for certain, and that is that the Big Ten is secure in its current members.

Big XII B-

The Big XII lost its two most prominent universities and fanbases. But what the Big XII lost in college football staples, it gained in college football up-and-comers. Cincinnati’s CFP bid was a massive victory for the Big XII in 2021, as was Houston’s Birmingham Bowl win over Auburn and UCF’s Gasparillo Bowl win over Florida. The addition of BYU is also looking to be a success, as the Cougars went 5-0 against the Pac-12 this past season.

The Big XII’s four additions will bring the conference to an even twelve teams, but with Oklahoma and Texas’ departure on a slight hold, the 2023 and 2024 seasons could include 14 teams competing in the conference. The Big XII should be weary of possible Big Ten expansion west, with Kansas being a rumored target.

ACC: B-

The ACC also lost and gained nothing through this conference realignment period. An Eastern Standard Time war between the Big Ten and SEC could become problematic down the road, but the Big Ten has luckily remained quiet.

A media rights deal that has ACC teams locked in until 2035 probably kept them out of this round of realignment, and the odds of snatching up Notre Dame once and for all are looking slim for the time being.

American: C+

The American lost three of their staple programs in Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF. Memphis looks to be the most likely future exit if the ACC or Big XII look to grow. Luckily for the American, they remain the most lucrative of the Group of Five suitors and were able to poach six Conference USA teams.

The conference’s landscape is vast, so a push for future expansion could be an option. However, the Sun Belt’s university retention and expansion to 14 teams – many of which are in the same region as some of the AAC teams – could become problematic.

MAC: C

The MAC has been the least talked about conference in terms of expanding and disbanding. The conference shares an almost entirely different landscape than the shared regions where the American, Conference USA, and Sun Belt operate. Outside of Cincinnati in Ohio (who is moving to the Big XII anyway), the MAC schools share no common state with teams from another Group of Five conference.

With most schools sharing similar budgets and structures, along with Commissioner Joe Steinbrecher reiterating that the conference is not looking to expand, the MAC seems to be in a secure position despite missing out, or at the very least delaying, any word of expansion.

Mountain West: C–

The Mountain West, surprisingly, was left untouched despite the Big XII and American needing a boost of membership. Air Force and Colorado State could still be on the board for either one of those conferences, but the most likely departure could be from Boise State.

If the Pac-12 looks to expand locally, San Diego State and other Mountain West teams could be future targets. In the future, a North Dakota State / South Dakota State jump from the FCS could become a possibility, but geography continues to be a roadblock. Geography is also a roadblock for the current Mountain West members, who are separated much more than their eastern Group of Five counterparts.

Pac-12: C-

Like the ACC and Big Ten, the Pac-12 also lost and gained no members. The window is still open for speculated teams like Boise State or other Mountain West affiliates, but unfortunately conference realignment couldn’t have came at a worse time for the Pac-12. The conference’s media rights deals with ESPN and Fox are set to expire in 2024, which could be the final year of Oklahoma and Texas Big XII football, which could prompt the Big XII to make another move.

With Boise State announcing their Athletics Master Village, their move to a Power Five conference looks imminent. Memphis is also being eyed as a future Power Five member, most likely joining their American Conference partners in a future move to the Big XII.

Conference USA: D-

Nobody came out of the current realignment period more dismantled than Conference USA. With nine teams leaving for the American or the Sun Belt, the additions of two FBS independents (Liberty and New Mexico State) and two FCS teams (Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State) will unlikely make up the financial ground.

It’s important to note that Conference USA-loyalists Middle Tennessee, FIU, and Western Kentucky all left the Sun Belt in 2013 and 2014 to join Conference USA.