COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF ELIMINATOR – CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK

It was an eventful rivalry week that twisted (and almost completely flipped) the College Football Playoff (CFP) race. Alabama needed four overtimes to beat Auburn, Michigan dismantled Ohio State on the ground, and Oklahoma State took down Oklahoma. There are only a few teams left in contention for the CFP race heading into conference championship week.

#1 Georgia (12-0)

Up Next: SEC Championship vs #3 Alabama (11-1)

With Win: The unequivocal No. 1 seed is on the line for the Georgia Bulldogs, who boast the best defense in the land.

With Loss: The No. 1 seed will be gone with a loss, but there is absolutely no chance the Bulldogs finish outside the top-four at 12-1 based on the season they had.

#2 Michigan (11-1): lost to Michigan State, 37-33 (Week 9)

Up Next: Big Ten Championship vs #13 Iowa (10-2)

With Win: Their first trip to the CFP in the Harbaugh era. If they win the Big Ten, they’ll most likely stay at the No. 2 spot behind the SEC champ.

With Loss: Two decades of disappointment will come full circle for the 2021 season. The Wolverines will drop out of the top-four without a doubt.

#3 Alabama (11-1): lost to Texas A&M, 41-38 (Week 6)

Up Next: SEC Championship vs #1 Georgia (12-0)

With Win: The Crimson Tide will probably take over as the No. 1 seed in the CFP if they win the SEC, bumping Georgia to No. 2 or No. 3.

With Loss: Georgia, the Big XII champ, and Notre Dame (probably) would all be in. The Tide would need Iowa to beat Michigan, Houston to beat Cincinnati, and Utah to beat Oregon while also winning a debate against a two-loss Ohio State, and a two-loss Big Ten champ Iowa.

#4 Cincinnati (12-0)

Up Next: American Championship vs #21 Houston (11-1)

With Win: The first trip to the CFP for a Group of Five program. If Cincinnati is 13-0 and stands outside of the top-four, expect riots. If Georgia wins the SEC, Cincinnati could move up to the No. 3 spot and avoid the Bulldogs while playing Michigan (if they win the Big Ten).

With Loss: The magic of an undefeated season will be gone and so will a CFP berth, opening the door wide open for the Big XII.

#5 Oklahoma State (11-1): lost to Iowa State, 24-21 (Week 8)

Up Next: Big XII Championship vs #9 Baylor (10-2)

With Win: The Cowboys need Georgia to beat Alabama, Iowa to beat Michigan, OR Houston to beat Cincinnati. If any of those three happen, Oklahoma State should jump into the final CFP spot.

With Loss: Eliminated.

#6 Notre Dame (11-1): lost to Cincinnati, 24-13 (Week 5)

Up Next: OFF

What They Need: The Irish need two of Alabama, Michigan, Oklahoma State and Cincinnati to lose to more-than-likely secure a spot. The Big XII champ is still in prime position to be in over Notre Dame, while two-loss Oregon and Iowa (both as conference champs) also having better wins and a conference title on their resume – they’d probably still sit behind the Irish, however.

#7 Ohio State (10-2): lost to Oregon, 35-28 (Week 6) & Michigan, 42-27 (Week 13)

Up Next: OFF

What They Need: Utter chaos. The Buckeyes would need an ugly Big Ten Championship, Georgia to win the SEC, Utah to win the Pac-12, Houston to win the American, and it wouldn’t hurt to have Baylor win an ugly game in the Big XII Championship. If all that happens – don’t be surprised for this Ohio State squad to be in the mix in a top-four scenario of Georgia, Michigan or Iowa, and two of either Baylor, Notre Dame, and Ohio State.

#9 Baylor (10-2): lost to Oklahoma State, 24-14 (Week 5) & TCU, 30-28 (Week 10)

Up Next: Big XII Championship vs #5 Oklahoma State (11-1)

With Win: A Georgia win would certainly help everyone outside of the top-four, including a two-loss conference champion Bears squad. It wouldn’t hurt if Michigan lost the Big Ten or Cincinnati lost the American, two scenarios that their conference championship game opponent would also benefit from.

With Loss: Eliminated.

#10 Oregon (10-2): lost to Stanford, 31-24 (OT) (Week 5) & Utah, 38-7 (Week 12)

Up Next: Pac-12 Championship vs #17 Utah (9-3)

With Win: The winner of the Big XII, the winner of the SEC, and Notre Dame would all likely be ahead of Oregon regardless of the result, so it’s vital that Georgia takes out Alabama, Iowa takes out Michigan, and Houston takes out Cincinnati.

With Loss: Eliminated.

#13 Iowa (10-2): lost to Purdue, 24-7 (Week 7) & Wisconsin, 27-7 (Week 9)

Up Next: Big Ten Championship vs #2 Michigan (11-1)

With Win: Iowa would need Georgia to beat Alabama, Houston to beat Cincinnati, and Utah to beat Oregon. Even with all of that – they’d still be in a debate with Notre Dame, the Big XII champ, two-loss Ohio State, and two-loss Alabama for the other three spots.

With Loss: Eliminated.

#15 Pittsburgh (10-2): lost to Western Michigan, 44-41 (Week 3) & Miami, 38-34 (Week 9)

Up Next: ACC Championship vs #16 Wake Forest (10-2)

With Win: The Panthers would need Ohio State-level chaos and to absolutely dominate the Demon Decans. Either way you spin it, this would be a nearly impossible scenario. The Panthers should be proud of their season.

With Loss: Eliminated.

#16 Wake Forest (10-2): lost to UNC, 58-55 (Week 10) & Clemson, 48-27 (Week 12)

Up Next: ACC Championship vs #15 Pittsburgh (10-2)

With Win: The Demon Decans, like Pitt, would also need Ohio State-level chaos and to crush Pitt to get in the top-four. It’s a nearly impossible ask for the ACC to slide back into the CFP conversation.

With Loss: Eliminated.