The College Football Playoff Eliminator: Week 15

The College Football Playoff (CFP) field has diminished quickly, as Alabama finds themselves eliminated from playoff contention for the first time in their school’s history.

Heading into Championship Saturday, here is where the final teams stand:

1. Ohio State (Big Ten, 12-0):

Loss: None

Next up: Big Ten Championship vs Wisconsin

With a win: If the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin, they will probably remain first in the CFP rankings. They could fall to second if LSU looks more impressive against Georgia.

With a loss: They should remain in the top four as long as they keep it close. Even at 12-1, they’d have a stronger resume than any one-loss team in the country. If Georgia beats LSU in this scenario, Clemson would probably take over the first spot with Georgia second, Ohio State third, and LSU fourth.

2. LSU (SEC, 12-0):

Loss: None

Next up: SEC Championship vs Georgia

With a win: LSU wins and they’re in. Most likely, they’ll remain second in the CFP rankings ahead of their matchup with Georgia. Depending on how the Tigers look against Georgia and how Ohio State looks against Wisconsin, that will decide who takes the number one spot.

With a loss: Just like Ohio State, they should remain in the top four as long as it’s a close loss to Georgia.

3. Clemson (ACC, 12-0):

Loss: None

Next up: ACC Championship vs Virginia

With a win: Win and they’re in. Clemson’s defense has been fantastic all season long and this team should never be counted out against any opponent, regardless of the weak resume.

With a loss: Clemson would need LSU and Ohio State to win and hope that Oregon beats Utah. They’d still have a shot at the playoff, but their resume has set this championship-caliber team back a step.

4. Georgia (SEC, 11-1):

Loss: vs South Carolina (20-17)

Next up: SEC Championship vs LSU

With a win: If they beat LSU with Ohio State and Clemson taking care of business, they will definitely be playing Clemson in the semifinal and giving us the LSU-Ohio State matchup that we’ve all been waiting for a few weeks early.

With a loss: If Georgia loses, they’ll probably be eliminated. They’d need to keep it close, hope Ohio State wins, Clemson loses, Utah loses, and that the Big XII Championship between Baylor and Oklahoma is a mess as well. Even with all of that, a top four could still be Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, and a Big XII champ.

5. Utah (Pac-12, 11-1):

Loss: @ USC (30-23)

Next up: Pac-12 Championship vs Oregon

With a win: A lot rides on the SEC Championship for the Utes, as they would need LSU to take care of Georgia. A Clemson loss to Virginia certainly wouldn’t hurt and there is no way that Utah jumps Ohio State regardless of the Big Ten Championship outcome (blowout permitting). Something else that could come to the demise of Utah’s strong season would be if Baylor or Oklahoma wins in convincing fashion in the Big XII Championship. Baylor especially, who would avenged their only loss to Oklahoma, would have a strong playoff case.

With a loss: They’re eliminated. There is no scenario in which Utah would get a bid as a two-loss non-conference champion.

6. Oklahoma (Big XII, 11-1):

Loss: Kansas State (48-41)

Next up: Big XII Championship vs Baylor

With a win: Just like Utah, Oklahoma would need LSU to beat Georgia. They wouldn’t jump a one-loss Ohio State if the Buckeyes were to a lose a close game, but they could jump a one-loss Clemson. It would certainly help if Utah were to lose to Oregon, which would open the door wide open for Oklahoma to slide in.

With a loss: They’re eliminated.

7. Baylor (Big XII, 11-1):

Loss: vs Oklahoma (34-31)

Next up: Big XII Championship vs Oklahoma

With a win: A win in convincing fashion over Oklahoma, avenging their only loss of the season, should be enough to put them in over the Utes. However, like Utah, they need LSU to win the SEC. A Clemson loss also wouldn’t hurt their chances.

With a loss: They’re eliminated.

8. Wisconsin (Big Ten, 10-2):

Loss: @ Illinois (24-23) and @ Ohio State (38-7)

Next up: Big Ten Championship vs Ohio State

With a win: Wisconsin would need a ton of chaos to get in the playoff. First, they’d need to wipe the floor with Ohio State (much like the Buckeyes did to the Badgers in their 2014 National Championship run). Second, LSU would need to beat Georgia. Third, Oregon would need to beat Utah. A Clemson loss to Virginia would also help, as would a sloppy Big XII Championship. Wisconsin would also need to have a case that they deserve to be in over Ohio State, who would only have one loss and a regular season win over the Badgers. In all of the chaos and scenarios that accompany Wisconsin’s unlikely chances, they still remain slightly in the hunt.

With a loss: They’re eliminated.

9. Memphis (The American, 11-1):

Loss: @ Temple (30-28)

Next up: American Championship vs Cincinnati

With a win: Memphis is still on this list for one reason and that is this crazy scenario:
– Ohio State wins the Big Ten.
– LSU wins the SEC.
– Virginia blows out Clemson in the ACC.
– Oregon beats Utah in the Pac-12.
Even with all of these scenarios, Memphis’ chance at a playoff spot is basically zero. However, a CFP with Ohio State, LSU, Baylor/Oklahoma, and Memphis would certainly be interesting. The committee could argue that no other teams took care of business or played as many teams with winning records as Memphis. This would also be a huge statement from the committee that winning a conference championship matters, as two-loss teams Florida, Minnesota, Notre Dame, and Penn State wouldn’t have a title.

With a loss: Obviously, they’d be eliminated.

Eliminated:

Alabama (SEC, 10-2): Eliminated with week 14 loss to Auburn, 48-45.
Cincinnati (The American, 10-2): Eliminated with week 14 loss to Memphis, 34-24.
Minnesota (Big Ten, 10-2): Eliminated with week 14 loss to Wisconsin, 38-17.

Here is a complete list of teams that have been eliminated this season:

Eliminated in Week 0/1 (21 teams):

Akron: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Illinois, 42-3.
Arkansas State: Eliminated with week 1 loss to SMU, 37-30.
Ball State: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Indiana, 34-24.
Coastal Carolina: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Eastern Michigan, 30-23.
Colorado State: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Colorado, 52-13.
Florida Atlantic: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Ohio State, 45-21.
Florida International: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Tulane, 42-14.
Fresno State: Eliminated with week 1 loss to USC, 31-23.
Georgia Southern: Eliminated with week 1 loss to LSU, 55-3.
LA-Lafayette: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Mississippi State, 38-28.
Liberty: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Syracuse, 24-0.
Louisiana Tech: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Texas, 45-14.
Miami (OH): Eliminated with week 1 loss to Iowa, 38-14.
Middle Tennessee: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Michigan, 40-12.
New Mexico State: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Washington State, 58-7.
Rice: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Army, 14-7.
South Alabama: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Nebraska, 35-21.
Texas State: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Texas A&M, 41-7.
Toledo: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Kentucky, 38-24.
UMass: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Rutgers, 48-21.
Western Kentucky: Eliminated with week 1 loss to Central Arkansas, 35-28.

Eliminated in Week 2 (21 teams):

Army: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Michigan, 24-21 (OT).
Bowling Green: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Kansas State, 52-0.
Buffalo: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Penn State, 45-13.
Central Michigan: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Wisconsin, 61-0.
Charlotte: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Appalachian State, 56-41.
Eastern Michigan: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Kentucky, 38-17.
LA-Monroe: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Florida State, 45-44 (OT).
Marshall: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Boise State, 14-7.
Nevada: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Oregon, 77-6.
North Texas: Eliminated with week 2 loss to SMU, 49-27.
Northern Illinois: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Utah, 35-17.
Ohio: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Pittsburgh, 20-10.
Old Dominion: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Virginia Tech, 31-17.
San Jose State: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Tulsa, 34-16.
South Florida: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Georgia Tech, 14-10.
Southern Mississippi: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Mississippi State, 38-15.
Tennessee: Eliminated with week 2 loss to BYU, 29-26.
UNLV: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Arkansas State, 43-17.
UTEP: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Texas Tech, 38-3.
UTSA: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Baylor, 63-14.
Western Michigan: Eliminated with week 2 loss to Michigan State, 51-17.

Eliminated in Week 3 (10 teams):

East Carolina: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Navy, 42-10.
Georgia State: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Western Michigan, 57-10.
Georgia Tech: Eliminated with week 3 loss to The Citadel, 27-24 (OT).
Hawai’i: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Washington, 52-20.
Houston: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Washington State, 31-24.
Kent State: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Auburn, 55-16.
New Mexico: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Notre Dame, 66-14.
Troy: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Southern Miss, 47-42.
Tulsa: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Oklahoma State, 40-21.
UCLA: Eliminated with week 3 loss to Oklahoma, 48-14.

Eliminated in Week 4 (11 teams):

Air Force: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Boise State, 30-19.
BYU: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Washington, 45-19.
Illinois: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Nebraska, 42-38.
Kansas: Eliminated with week 4 loss to West Virginia, 29-24.
San Diego State: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Utah State, 23-17.
South Carolina: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Missouri, 34-14.
Stanford: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Oregon, 21-6.
UConn: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Indiana, 38-3.
UNC: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Appalachian State, 34-31.
Vanderbilt: Eliminated with week 4 loss to LSU, 66-38.
Wyoming: Eliminated with week 4 loss to Tulsa, 24-21.

Eliminated in Week 5 (8 teams):

Arkansas: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Texas A&M, 31-27.
Kentucky: Eliminated with week 5 loss to South Carolina, 24-7.
Northwestern: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Wisconsin, 24-15.
Ole Miss: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Alabama, 59-31.
Oregon State: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Stanford, 31-28.
Purdue: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Minnesota, 38-31.
Rutgers: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Michigan, 52-0.
UAB: Eliminated with week 5 loss to Western Kentucky, 20-13.

Eliminated in Week 6 (5 teams):

Boston College: Eliminated with week 6 loss to Louisville, 41-39.
Miami (FL): Eliminated with week 6 loss to Virginia Tech, 42-35.
Syracuse: Eliminated with week 6 loss to NC State, 16-10.
UCF: Eliminated with week 6 loss to Cincinnati, 27-24.
Utah State: Eliminated with week 6 loss to LSU, 42-6.

Eliminated in Week 7 (11 teams):

Colorado: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Oregon, 45-3.
Florida State: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Clemson, 45-14.
Maryland: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Purdue, 40-14.
Michigan State: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Wisconsin, 38-0.
Mississippi State: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Tennessee, 20-10.
Nebraska: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Minnesota, 34-7.
Texas A&M: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Alabama, 47-28.
Texas Tech: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Baylor, 33-30.
USC: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Notre Dame, 30-27.
Washington State: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Arizona State, 38-34.
West Virginia: Eliminated with week 7 loss to Iowa State, 38-14.

Eliminated in Week 8 (11 teams):

Arizona: Eliminated with week 8 loss to USC, 41-14.
#22 Boise State: Eliminated with week 8 loss to BYU, 28-25.
California: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Oregon State, 21-17.
Duke: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Virginia, 48-14.
NC State: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Boston College, 45-24.
Louisville: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Clemson, 45-10.
Oklahoma State: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Baylor, 45-27.
TCU: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Kansas State, 24-17.
Temple: Eliminated with week 8 loss to SMU, 45-21.
Tulane: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Memphis, 47-17.
Washington: Eliminated with week 8 loss to Oregon, 35-31.

Eliminated in Week 9 (7 teams):

Arizona State: Eliminated with week 9 loss to UCLA, 42-32.
Iowa State: Eliminated with week 9 loss to Oklahoma State, 34-27.
Missouri: Eliminated with week 9 loss to Kentucky, 29-7.
#16 Notre Dame: Eliminated with week 9 loss to Michigan, 45-14.
Pittsburgh: Eliminated with week 9 loss to Miami (FL), 16-12.
Texas: Eliminated with week 9 loss to TCU, 37-27.
Virginia: Eliminated with week 9 loss to Louisville, 28-21.

Eliminated in Week 10 (2 teams):

Virginia Tech: Eliminated with week 10 loss to Notre Dame, 21-20.
Appalachian State: Eliminated with week 10 loss to Georgia Southern, 24-21.

Eliminated in Week 11 (3 teams):

Iowa: Eliminated with week 11 loss to Wisconsin, 24-22.
Kansas State: Eliminated with week 11 loss to Texas, 27-24.
Wake Forest: Eliminated with week 10 loss to Virginia Tech, 36-17.

Eliminated in Week 12 (4 teams):

Auburn: Eliminated with week 12 loss to Georgia, 21-14.
Florida: Eliminated with inability to control conference destiny.
Indiana: Eliminated with week 12 loss to Penn State, 34-17.
Navy: Eliminated with week 12 loss to Notre Dame, 52-20.

Eliminated in Week 13 (4 teams):

Michigan: Eliminated with inability to control conference destiny.
Oregon: Eliminated with week 13 loss to Arizona State, 31-28.
Penn State: Eliminated with week 13 loss to Ohio State, 28-17.
SMU: Eliminated with week 13 loss to Navy, 35-28.

Eliminated in Week 14 (3 teams):

Alabama: Eliminated with week 14 loss to Auburn, 48-45.
Cincinnati: Eliminated with week 14 loss to Memphis, 34-24.
Minnesota: Eliminated with week 14 loss to Wisconsin, 38-17.

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